Looking afternoon, the next two big factors will curb the international crude oil prices rebound.
First, the situation in Syria has not spread, crude oil continued to carefully pared gains
Previously, ordered the trump to Syria missile launch event makes an already volatile of Syria, in the more volatile situation.Actually Syria isn't a major oil producer, but Syria near important oil transportation station, once the situation in Syria deteriorating even further, is likely to bring risk to the entire Middle East crude oil supply.Then, after the missile attack, crude oil prices soared.Since 1970, every time the situation in the Middle East tension fermentation, almost always accompanied by higher oil prices.
Last week, however, the situation in Syria has not been expanded, the President of the United States, no further action trump vs. with Russian President vladimir putin, is only playing "rhetoric".Geopolitical situation in the Middle East crisis eased, weaken the momentum of the oil price, this is from the trend of oil prices in the near future can also be reflected.U.S. crude oil rebounded jam $53 a barrel, brent crude oil from the retracement near $57 a barrel.
Second, the oil rally bad news - the us only half a year production nearly 800000 barrels a day!
Last week the United States energy information administration of the week's biggest bright spot data of EIA is not that the change of inventory more than expected, but lies in us crude oil production again to break through the market expectations.If from the American oil production in October last year lows 8.495 million barrels a day, the latest data showed that us oil production broke through 9.2 million barrels a day, 9.235 million barrels a day, about half a year close to 800000 barrels a day to increase production.
The current U.S. crude oil production has breached 9.2 million barrels a day, 9.6 million barrels a day from America's oil production record only less than 400000 barrels a day.And currently is just at the beginning of the second quarter of 2017, if the increase speed of the current U.S. crude oil output, do not rule out the oil production in 2017, over 2017 barrels a day in the history of possibility.So will probably form the increase of U.S. crude oil production completely offset OPEC productivity situation 1.2 million barrels per day (at present, the market believes OPEC production cuts to extend the probability).
Need of special note is that if OPEC continue to extend the cuts, so may cause in recent months, the oil price in a certain period of time the high jump, in this case, the shale oil and gas producers will continue to copy last year's hedging technique locking future cash flows, resulting in the increase of the shale oil production more than OPEC productivity, which significantly suppress prices.