Say goodbye to winter, the international oil market recently Spring is in the air. In the production of oil production and other factors to stimulate the production of such factors, more than a month, the international oil prices rose three or four into. But with the supply of excess of this spell, the current round of oil prices rebound is still unknown.
According to the national development and Reform Commission notice, when domestic oil prices in the international market of crude oil anchored price below $40 a barrel, the domestic refined oil prices are no longer regulated. Therefore, although the international market is turning upside down Haiti "toss", but the domestic refined oil prices have been the "- stop", most gas station is in accordance with the highest retail price sales, refining and gas station is still in a good life.
Wind catastrophe in oil market
The recent long deep bear market in the oil market, then the wind changed significantly. Sing empty sound is selectively ignored, U.S. crude oil inventories have been a record breaking. In contrast, the producers to prop up the market, the international investment bank voice to sing more, do more massive speculative funds to move the market.
In addition to the sensitive point of the frozen production meeting, the market is concerned about the recent decline in U.S. crude oil production, the number of active oil drilling continues to decline. This shows the low oil prices brought forced effect in the emerging. At the same time, the Fed rate hike in the path of choice is more conservative, but also for the oil market to revive the warm air blowing.
The International Energy Agency pointed out in the latest market report, oil prices may have bottomed out, the reason is that the non OPEC output decreased rapidly while Iran exports growth is not fierce.
The drilling data of oil service company Beck Hughes announced that although most of the countries in the Middle East and the low oil prices still maintained high activity, but since the middle of 2014, Africa and Latin America dropped by about 43%, Europe and the Asia Pacific region fell 30%. The number of American drilling in October 2014 has reached 1609, but now has fallen by more than 75%.
ANZ bank said: "we expect the ratings below investment grade and within the next 12 months have the maturity of the debt Usa Energy Inc holds the oil supply over 1 million 200 thousand barrels per day." Compared with the Middle East oil producers, U.S. producers are more likely to cut production, because many Usa Energy Inc have been downgraded by rating agencies.
Standard Chartered International Investment Bank released the latest report also clearly pointed out that oil supply concerns will be dominant in the next few months, especially in the global oil inventories began to decline, stocks are expected to decline will occur in the third quarter of this year. Standard Chartered said that more and more signals show that the organization of the petroleum exporting countries of the oil production will be a significant decline in oil prices to predict oil prices can stand at the end of 60 dollars a barrel.
The basic side of the hoop curse is still in
In the "Star", New York crude oil futures prices from February 11th's twelve year low in 46.7%, Brent crude oil futures prices soared by 34.2%. However, the current round of oil price rally has continued for more than a month, the magnitude of more than three or four, the future of the rebound can continue how long, the rebound height can touch where is still unknown.
The first half of last year was from New York oil prices near $44 rushed to above $60, but the second half fell to $30 near the valley. Its root lies in the excess supply of crude oil has not been the magic of the investment bank of the "singing" and speculation and speculation of a substantial change in the investment bank.
Eastern oil and gas network, said Cheng Ruifeng, oil manager, although oil prices have rebounded, but from the basic point of view, the current oversupply of the market has not changed substantially. Market excess supply is still more than 3 million barrels a day, while the stock is still in the history of the peak level.
U.S. energy information administration released March 16th crude oil data show that last week, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1 million 300 thousand barrels to 523 million 200 thousand barrels. At this point, the U.S. crude oil inventory data has been around for a row high, constantly refresh the history of the highest inventory, the current level of inventory 64 million 700 thousand barrels higher than the same period last year.
Goldman Sachs warned that the current rebound in oil prices is not sustainable, because the oil needs to lower oil prices to complete the process of rebalancing to maintain financial pressure, otherwise, crude oil prices will be like last year that spring up". U.S. shale oil dependent on external capital to survive in more than 40 U.S. dollars of oil prices may start to do its production of hedging, or in the upcoming credit re test in the financial life again. For U.S. shale oil, $40 oil price can be surfaced, $50 profitable, $60 can be developed.
Domestic refinery gas station is still a good day
The national development and Reform Commission issued a notice in January 13th, setting the domestic refined oil price regulation limit, when domestic oil prices in the international market of crude oil anchored price below $40 a barrel, the domestic refined oil prices are no longer regulated. Therefore, although the international market is turning upside down Haiti "toss", but the domestic refined oil prices have been "four stop".
China's refined oil prices to implement government pricing, but only the provisions of the maximum limit, so the enterprise still has a certain price flexibility. Domestic wholesale market is relatively high degree of market, the actual wholesale price is much lower than the government set the maximum limit. While the retail market has maintained a high level for a long time, and the difference between the maximum price is smaller.
Eastern oil and gas network monitoring, at present, a ton of gasoline 93 wholesale price of 1887 yuan less than the government's wholesale price limit, but the retail price is only 62 yuan lower than the government's maximum retail price. In terms of diesel, diesel 0