In recent months, the previous poor performance of the bulk commodities gradually strengthened. Among them a sharp rebound in oil prices in New York 16%, Brent oil prices rebounded 10%, COMEX gold rally 10.3%, LME aluminum and copper prices have rebounded 6%, have hit a new high.
Market analysts said that with the U.S. and other economic data better than expected, commodity demand is expected to increase, the fund also began to return to commodities. Among them, especially in their own obvious hedging properties of gold and other precious metals may be led.
Money back to commodities
Data show that the main commodity prices have rebounded in the last month. Strong oil prices during the two places, New York crude oil futures prices rose 16%, Brent crude oil futures prices rose 10%. Precious metals and base metals also rose more obvious, COMEX gold futures prices rose 10.3% cumulative, silver futures prices rose 4.5% cumulative, platinum prices rose 10% cumulative, palladium prices rose 5% cumulative. LME3 months aluminum futures prices rose 6% cumulative, copper futures prices rose 6% cumulative, zinc futures rose 10% cumulative, nickel futures prices rose 5% cumulative, lead futures prices rose 4% cumulative, tin futures prices rose 12% cumulative. Even some of the relatively small degree of agricultural prices also rebounded, such as ICE sugar futures prices rose 12%, cocoa prices rose 6.5%.
Number of agencies pointed out that with the return of funds, the market sentiment is more optimistic, commodities have entered a "touch bottom rebound" stage. Bloomberg monitoring data show that the ETP products listed on the exchange has become the largest single category of commodity investment. Some commodities ETP in January this year, the net inflow of funds amounting to $5 billion, a net outflow of the trend, and the main flow of oil and gold, two of their net inflows amounted to approximately $2 billion 700 million.
Fitch Ratings's research institutions BMI 3 released the latest report, compared to the developed countries of the stock market, commodities now look more attractive, the commodity prices are expected to be close to the bottom. But BMI also stressed that although commodity prices have been close to the bottom, but is expected to rebound in 2016 after a period of stable period, rather than a strong rebound. The agency believes that the main factor to prevent commodity prices lasting, multiple consecutive quarters of the rebound, or will be part of the disappointment of emerging market economic data. BMI also said that some commodities rebound will not be plain sailing, such as iron ore and liquefied natural gas, etc..
Barclays Bank also said in the latest report released by the gold oil led the investment funds in 2016 has begun to return to commodity assets. This is the first time in 2015 suffered a sustained inflow of funds after three years of capital inflows continued to attract capital inflows phenomenon.
Precious metal or lead
Market analysts said the decline had too much oil and has the hedging properties of gold and other precious metals become commodities in LED, because crude oil supply and demand still has a certain degree of uncertainty, so the latter may be more favored by the market.
Barclay said, for crude oil, international crude oil prices below $30 a barrel for many investors is cheap, many analysts have predicted oil prices will rebound in 2016, so investors wantonly bargain is not surprising, especially oil prices have now reached 2009 at the beginning of the financial crisis at the bottom. For gold, the United States has poor data will be the next Fed rate hike expectations has been delayed, leading to weaker dollar for a period of time, in addition to the financial market and many industry concerns about the outlook, highlighting the value of gold hedging.
Before the Bank of Holland group strategist Georgette Boeller earlier this year has been the gold bearish outlook, but now she changed her views, and is expected before the end of this year the price of gold is expected to rise to $1300 per ounce, which is much higher than that of the previously given $900 an ounce of predictive value. She stressed that the market for the fed to raise interest rates and the pace of the pace of the question, is leading to a strong rebound in gold prices this year, the main reason.
Deutsche Bank also raised the price of gold before the date of 2016 to 2019 of the estimated value, respectively, from $1033 per ounce $1100, $1150 and $1233, raised to $1195, $1231, $1275 and $1317, the reason is facing the global financial system, the pressure rise of us corporate credit default risk and increase the cycle the major emerging economies lead to devaluation of the currency and capital outflows. The bank expects the price of gold may in the two quarter of this year there will be seasonal weakness, will show the opportunity to buy the dips.